Guest blog: Some quick and dirty thoughts on Raskin v. Ruben
Former Takoma Park City attorney and longtime pol-watcher Tom Gagliardo has submitted this assessment of the State Senate race in District 20. I was looking for analysis from someone who was a Ruben supporter. Tom provides that here. —ed.
Some quick and dirty thoughts on Raskin v. Ruben
Ida couldn't change the fact that she was an incumbent when the mood was anti-incumbent, or that she is 77 years old in a culture which devalues age, or that she has been in office 32 years when either alone or in combination with her age translated to many as "time for a change".
So could she have won?
Absolutely. Because she could have changed how her campaign was run.
First, she didn't make the obvious point—that while she worked and succeeded in getting things done Jamie was nowhere to be found.
Second, she didn't have a unified theme. It might have been: "I've been working in Annapolis for the things you care about, and with your support I will continue to do so".
Third, Jamie's attacks focused the debate on Ida's fitness. Had she defended herself and blunted his criticism, she could have returned the debate to Jamie's lack of involvement.
Fourth, Jamie's negative attacks worked because they were circumspect and believable (even if based on distortions and half truths). Ida's attack back fired because it was crude and by the time it was launched many voters were already enamored of Jamie.
There are somethings that Jamie couldn't change: Ida is a dyed in the wool liberal Democrat with an outstanding legislative record. This is the reason she was endorsed by an overwhelming number of major labor, women's, environmental and other organizations which promote a progressive agenda.
But he convinced voters she had to go because she was a machine pol, ineffective and beholden to special interests—all false allegations.
Jamie also knew that when handed lemons he could make lemonade. When he didn't get endorsed by the Montgomery County Education Association or the state teacher's organization he mailed a piece with a picture of his three kids and announced they were the reason he was committed to public education.
Some other thoughts:
1. WHAT MACHINE?
There is little question that Jamie convinced voters that Ida was a relic of Maryland's machine politics who had to go. But someone has to define "machine" and convince me that the term applies to Ruben. As I use the term, if you're part of a machine you need to do more than put out one or two stock pieces with your running mates (in Ida's case that was Sheila Hixson, who won, and Gareth Murray, who lost). Because most elected officials who took a public stand supported Ida, maybe that's what Jamie means by a machine. If so, Jamie just joined.
2. WHAT DO JOHN KERRY AND IDA RUBEN HAVE IN COMMON?
Ida did not counter Jamie's criticisms and charges, some of which were distortions or plainly untrue. She needed to defend herself early and often, and shift the debate to how could someone with a scant record in local and state affairs do better than she has.
Her failure to respond is regrettably reminiscent of John Kerry's pummeling by the Swift Boaters.
A few examples of how Ida should have fought back in order to direct the debate in her favor.
Ida opposes Bush's Iraq War. Jamie's false accusation that she was pro-war opened the door for his candidacy. The Maryland Senate unanimously passed a resolution supporting the troops. It asiduously avoided declaring support for the President or the war. One can argue that supporting the troops is best demonstrated by bringing them home. Sure, but the practicalities of voting for the Senate resolution did not make Ida (or progressive icons like Brian Frosh, who also voted for it) pro-war. The simple truth: Raskin fibbed, Ruben let him get away with it.
Jamie's fundraising e-mails proclaimed he would never take gambling money. The implication was Ida had. The truth is that Ruben, who has steadfastly opposed slots at Maryland race tracks, accepted contributions from an old friend who owns Ocean Downs. Ruben should have used this to demostrate her independence. Instead, voters heard an almost entirely unchallenged message (there was one piece on the weekend before the election "setting the record straight") that she was in the pocket of a very disfavored special interest. Incidently, Ruben almost lost her leadership position because of her opposition to slots.
Jamie convinced voters Ida was ineffective. His source was a Gazette article which described itself as being just for fun. You can't lead the Montgomery County delegation year after year, sit on the coveted Budget and Tax Committee and be named by Washingtonian Magazine as one of the 100 most powerful women in the area if you aren't getting results.
Jamie accused relentlessly. Ida didn't respond. Had she responded voters may have seen her as the undeserving victim of an upstart's dissembling. Responded to effectively the question would have turned to Jamie's propensity to distort and win at any cost. Ida's silence was an enormous strategic error.
Coupled with her unfounded attack on Jamie's Democratic bona fides made disaster pedictable.
3. WHAT MESSAGE
Ida's campaign lacked a convincing theme. It seems her campaign's message was "Thank You, Ida" and focused on her bringing home the bacon. It didn't sell. Her success in funding inumberable local projects needed to be individualized and humanized.
Ida's message should have been "I've been working in Annapolis for the things you care about, and with your support I will continue to do so". Catalogue her work on health care, the elderly and disabled, for example. Tell the real life, individualized stories of the numerous people who have benefited, and keep asking "Where was Jamie?" and (maybe) the election turns out differently.
Compare Jamie's mail piece on the Houston Ave tenants—human, concrete, sympathetic—even if it falsely charges Ida as not responding to their pleas. In fact, she produced email and notes demonstrating her response, and she sponsored a bill which became law to protect tenants facing condo conversion.
4. WHAT'S NEXT
To the victor go the spoils.
Despite his campaign rhetoric, the fact is Jamie did not rid Maryland politics of a corrupt, machine pol. All he did was replace a steady presence and reliable vote with . . . . we'll see. He may prove he can better move a more progressive agenda, but that is not guaranteed.
Once elected in November, Jamie will have to demostrate that he can work successfully in wiley and wild Annapolis. He's smart enough, let's hope he's wise enough. I for one will work with him. If he wants it, he has my support to enact a yet to be defined progressive agenda.
Patching things up with his predecessor and her colleagues who are returning to Annapolis would be an excellent first step.
And Ida is more likely to be properly recognized for her long and distinguished public service, if she, too, extends an olive branch.

Comments
In terms of "What machine?" I think that you have to look back over time instead of solely at this election. Maybe Ida didn't have a lot of colleague support this time due to rats leaving a sinking politician.
The anti-incumbent mood was a real phenomenon. I don't think that Mike Miller has ever backed so many losers. Good.
Some people are still smarting from the Dem machine blocking Linda Schade, a strong progressive, as a candidate for District 20. All of the District 20 "team" had a hand in that. And Tom Hucker was the hatchet man behind the scenes. Progressive Maryland indeed!
A lesson that you don't draw is that Ida has pissed off so many people over the years that when the going got tough, she was deserted.
Posted by: anonymous | September 18, 2006 09:31 AM
Of course Senator Ruben could have easily won this election, were it not for her assumed entitlement, vindictive behavior and bad judgment calls. All of these things had absolutely nothing to do with her age or Jamie Raskin for that matter. In fact, I never once heard her age mentioned by anyone involved in the Raskin campaign.
Early on, she was clearly the favored candidate because of her age and length of incumbency. In fact, several people encouraged Raskin not to run because they thought he would certainly lose. It was her race to blow and she did so with gusto.
Consider the Blair High School controversy. When the high school newspaper endorsed Raskin, Ruben called the principal on the carpet and prompted him to chastise the students and direct them to write an article about her. Ruben certainly could have addressed the students with more dignity and respect. But instead, she chose to call, threaten and rage.
Many people supported Ruben because they were afraid not to support her. Her reputation for vindictiveness and cold shouldering is legendary with some saying that she will not even speak to them because they have crossed her in some way. Excuse me, but when a politician is feared by her constituents, it is time for a change.
On the point of "distortions" one need only look at the Ruben mailings with her allegations that Raskin was a Bush supporter, anti-choice and pro-Nader...tactics not befitting an incumbent of such proclaimed stature.
I canvassed for Raskin. We knocked on thousands of doors. She got to only some of them at times asking voters if they would place her yard sign out of "respect for their state senator".
I'm sorry. This campaign had nothing to do with Ruben's age. It had much to do with her attitude about her constituents, colleagues and herself. That attitude was much more prominent than her opinion about issues, way more prominent than a vision about the priorities she saw for the next term, and certainly more prominent than her record.
Given the choice between a person who chose to rest on her laurels and demand deference and a person like Raskin who identified important issues and made clear an intention to organize for progressive change, the decision was easy to make.
Posted by: marie ritzo | September 19, 2006 12:08 PM
Marie Ritzo is dead on. This is the best anaysis of the race I've seen, and accounts handily for the margin of victory.
Posted by: Anonymous | September 20, 2006 04:00 PM
It's remarkable to me that a pro-Ida Ruben post would feature a whole section titled WHAT MESSAGE. Coupled with just plain getting outhustled at every phase, as Ms. Ritzo points out, you'd hardly need go any further in analyzing this election. I wanted someone who could tell me what his or her plans were when they got to Annapolis. I got it, and I'm pleased.
And it's absolutely time for the "distortions and lies" charge and the "ageism" to be laid to rest. Everything Raskin said was backed up; if people don't like the Gazette's(!) analysis of Ruben's effectiveness, complain to the Gazette, not to him. And I never once heard Raskin refer to Ms. Ruben's age. I always read both the "politics of the past" and the "machine" charge as about Ms. Ruben's reputed "my way or the highway" personal loyalty and Dem networking politics. If their ages had been reversed, I'd still have voted for Raskin.
Posted by: Thomas Nephew | September 21, 2006 12:33 PM
The world is as you see it. And my post is as you read it. BUT . . . If you think age wasn't a factor you don't understand voter behavior. BUT . . . My point was that despite the fact that both candidates had to deal with realities that could work against them, Ida blew it and Jamie made lemon ade. I would have expected Ida supporters to take issue with my criticism of her campaign, and Jamie supporters to accept my acknowledgement that he ran a highly effective campaign. Wow, what was I thinking? At least my dog still loves me.
Posted by: TGaglairdo | September 21, 2006 03:16 PM
Maybe I didn't give you a fair enough reading. I guess the "negative campaign" charge against Raskin bothered me, because I don't think it was at all, let alone anything approaching Ruben's. But I guess I'm learning that negativity is in the eye of the beholder.
Let me, for one, acknowledge the praise you also give to the Raskin campaign, and pledge to make this my last contribution to squabbling about the primary campaign.
Posted by: Thomas Nephew | September 21, 2006 11:37 PM